The average home price in the Portland Metro was flat in April while the median home price rose 1%. Recent price movements reflect shifting market conditions during the spring market. We witnessed 4% appreciation in both February and March. As mortgage rates increased in March, there was a moderate slowdown, but that ended in April. May has been relatively active so I would expect we will see a resumption in price increases but I am not sure to what degree. My team has closed 9 sales so far this quarter after closing 16 sales in Q1. We have seen the busiest start to the year ever. However, this is more a reflection of our market share increasing dramatically than any changes in the aggregate number of sales that occur. From January through April, there have been 3% more closed sales in Greater Portland relative to the same time period in 2025. Our team’s sales have more than doubled so far in 2026 compared to this time last year.
The condo market has continued to show weakness relative to the rest of the Portland housing market. The overall market had 3.1 months of inventory at the end of April. This means market conditions are balanced but we are very close to shifting into a seller’s market. The inventory of condo listings is on the other side of the spectrum with approximately 1300 active listings. Only 200 condo sales closed in April with 6.5 months of inventory currently on the market. This means the condo market is currently a buyer’s market. Condo inventory is close to the highest level we saw in 2025. However, the condos that are selling are moving for slightly higher than the lowest winter prices with the average condo sale price up just over 4.5% since December.
The 30 year fixed rate averaged 6.53% across the United States this week. Accelerating inflation is playing a role in interest rates remaining elevated. On May 12th, it was reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.8% year over year. This was up from 3.3% the previous month. From February 2025 to February 2026, CPI registered annual inflation rates between 2.3% and 3%, so prices have clearly broken out to the upside. A lot of inflation is coming from oil with energy prices up 17.9% year over year on the most recent report. On May 13th, the Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve. While he was appointed with the intention of lowering interest rates, I’m not sure that’s what we will see in the short term. The conflict in Iran has significantly impacted prices. This has put the Fed in a wait-and-see mode. There are 12 economists on the Federal Reserve Board and their cumulative decisions will shape monetary policy so it’s not up to one person. Current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has decided to remain on the board of governors after his term ends so there will not be an appointment of an additional governor to further swing the votes towards a lower rate bias.
Several tech stocks spiked in value over the last month. Notably, the shares of Intel have more than doubled from March 31st to present. If Intel does start to recover from a few rough years, it could be a big boost to real estate demand in the west suburbs of Portland, especially Hillsboro and Bethany. They are a major local employer with fabrication and research facilities in Hillsboro and Aloha. There are also notable companies that support them locally such as Lam Research. The initial move in the share price was triggered by the company buying back a large stake in a chip fabrication facility in Ireland. Nvidia and Apple will potentially be heavily utilizing Intel’s foundry chipmaking business in the near future. Whether this signals a full turnaround in the local chipmaker is yet to be seen. I have helped multiple Intel engineers buy homes using the proceeds from stock sales at elevated valuations recently. Even the stock being up this much for a short period of time might add additional demand in our local real estate market given Intel employees have been actively selling stock to buy real estate already.
